Dexter Fowler Spurns Orioles at The Altar, Returns to Chicago

After the Orioles culminated a wildly successful offseason by landing certified innings-eater Yovani Gallardo, I was ready to praise GM Dan Duquette.  The research was finished, as was my first paragraph.  But then, I got this text from my friend, a diehard Orioles fan:

What was he talking about?  I viewed Fowler as an excellent signing for Baltimore and was surprised that my normally stoic, calm friend was so incensed.  Then, I checked Twitter:

Dexter Fowler has re-signed with the #Cubs, per @MDGonzales. One year deal with mutual option.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 25, 2016

Wow.  Ctrl+A+Delete.  Fowler had shockingly pulled a DeAndre Jordan, spurning the Orioles to return to the Windy City. The ramifications of the move for both the Cubs and Orioles are widespread.  I'll start with the Orioles, whose fans surely feel queasy after this unexpected gut punch.

Baltimore Orioles

After seemingly landing their coveted leadoff man and right fielder in one fell swoop, the Orioles are now forced to revert back to the drawing board.  Unfortunately, with Spring Training already well underway, the free agent market is desolate, rife with tumbleweeds and little else.  But there are still a few players available that can help Baltimore, even if the upgrades are more incremental by nature.

The first of these aforementioned players is Justin Morneau.  Morneau, who turns 35 in May, has suffered through concussion issues in recent years, but is still a good hitter when healthy.  Last year, in just 49 games, Morneau slashed his way to a vigorous .310/.363/.458 line.  Of course, this comes with a caveat that Morneau played home games at America's greatest launch pad, Coors Field.  But still, adjusting for park and league effects, Morneau was 7% better than average as a hitter last season--albeit in only 182 plate appearances.  And in 2014, Morneau was 22% better than league average across 135 productive games.  Morneau's power has dissipated since his heyday in Minnesota, but he would still become one of Baltimore's best on-base threats.  Of course, health is a major concern.

Another free agent first base option is Pedro Alvarez, who is virtually a left-handed Mark Trumbo.  The Pirates, frustrated with Alvarez's defensive inadequacy and propensity to strike out, decided to let Alvarez walk this offseason.  However, this is still a hitter with prodigious power, one who will send a baseball to the moon if the pitcher throws it in his wheelhouse.  While the Orioles would ideally like more of an on-base savant--rather than another boom-or-bust slugger--the thought of the potent Alvarez playing home games in Camden Yards may be too tantalizing to pass up.  Last year, Camden Yards was rated as the 2nd most conducive ballpark for home runs, and is especially favorable for left-handed hitters.  Put Alvarez, who has averaged 27.75 home runs over the past four seasons, in Baltimore for a full season and it would be surprising if he didn't hit at least 30 bombs.

Now, of course, if Baltimore signs either player, the Orioles defense will suffer.  Mark Trumbo would likely shift from designated hitter to right field, a far-from-ideal proposition.  But in late February, beggars can't be choosers, and the Orioles would be wise to pursue Morneau or Alvarez.  From my viewpoint, Baltimore should eschew signing Morneau due to his health issues and ink human powder keg Pedro Alvarez to a one-year deal.  This would leave Baltimore with a lineup looking something like this:

1) Hyun-Soo Kim LF (L)
2) Manny Machado 3B (R)
3) Chris Davis 1B (L)
4) Adam Jones CF (R)
5) Matt Wieters C (S)
6) Mark Trumbo RF (R)
7) Pedro Alvarez DH (L)
8) Jonathan Schoop 2B (R)
9) J.J. Hardy SS (R)

Despite lacking a prototypical leadoff hitter, this is a lineup that has the potential to go toe-to-toe with any American League team not located in Canada.  However, Alvarez's paltry career splits of .203/.270/.332 versus left-handed pitchers demonstrate that he is much better suited for a platoon role.

Enter Marlon Byrd into the equation.  Despite qualifying for near-geriatric status at age 38, Byrd remains a very productive hitter against left-handers, hitting a formidable .271/.324/.496 against southpaws in 2015.  And like Alvarez, a team that signs Byrd will not have to surrender a draft selection.  So, here is my proposal for Baltimore: sign Alvarez AND Byrd--and platoon them.  Against left-handed pitchers, Baltimore's lineup would look like this:

1) Hyun-Soo Kim LF (L)
2) Manny Machado 3B (R)
3) Chris Davis 1B (L)
4) Adam Jones CF (R)
5) Matt Wieters C (S)
6) Mark Trumbo DH (R)
7) Marlon Byrd RF (R)
8) Jonathan Schoop 2B (R)
9) J.J. Hardy SS (R)

Make no mistake about it, though.  Losing Fowler at the altar is a big blow for Baltimore.  Their defense will suffer and the team will have little recourse at the leadoff spot if Korean import Hyun-Soo Kim is unable to translate his gaudy numbers from the Korean Baseball League to the Major League level.  However, if GM Dan Duquette strikes quickly, he can still piece together a solid lineup from the remaining free agents.

Chicago Cubs

I mean, where do I begin?  The already-stacked Cubs somehow became even better today, and are now able to shift Jason Heyward back to right field, where he is more comfortable.  In addition, the move pushes Cuban sensation Jorge Soler to the bench, providing the Cubs with either a powerful bat off the bench or a valuable trade chip.  Their lineup is downright ludicrous.  Check it out:

1) Dexter Fowler CF (S)
2) Ben Zobrist 2B (S)
3) Anthony Rizzo 1B (L)
4) Kris Bryant 3B (R)
5) Kyle Schwarber LF (L)
6) Jason Heyward RF (L)
7) Miguel Montero C (L)
8) Pitcher
9) Addison Russell SS (R)

Goodness gracious.  If you're a Cubs fan, now may be a good time to change your pants. While Chicago is firmly entrenched as the best team on paper, tread carefully before preordaining them as NL Central champions.  Many paper champions, including last year's Nationals and the 2011 Red Sox, have thoroughly collapsed under the pressure--and the Cubs will be feeling the ire of their fans if things don't go as planned.  The Cubs--armed with a heavy and balanced artillery of pitching, defense, power, and speed--are the clear team to beat as it stands now.  But let's not coronate them just yet.

Orioles, Dexter Fowler Agree to Three-Year Deal

Dexter Fowler has landed in Birdland, agreeing to terms on a 3-year, $33 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles.  Fowler fills two conspicuous voids for the Orioles: a proficient leadoff hitter and a capable right fielder.  Fowler's presence will enable manager Buck Showalter to move stalwart 3rd baseman Manny Machado down the lineup, granting Machado more opportunities to drive in runs.

The Orioles hope Dexter Fowler will be smiling frequently in 2016.

Fowler is a prototypical leadoff hitter, equipped with both savvy on-base skills and above-average speed.  His plate discipline will be a boon for Baltimore, as Fowler should score plenty of runs hitting ahead of Machado, Adam Jones, and Chris Davis.  Moreover, Fowler showed no signs of slowing down last season for the Cubs, swiping 20 bags and plating 102 runs while posting a respectable .346 OBP.  The sturdy OBP number looks even more impressive considering his BABIP of .308 was significantly below his career mark of .341, hinting that Fowler was a victim of bad luck.  Fowler's peripherals--such as strikeout, walk, fly ball, and ground ball rates--all fell almost perfectly in line with his career norms.  All the data suggests that Fowler is still in the prime of his career offensively despite turning 30 in March.

So, how does Fowler stack up defensively?  Despite his speed, Fowler has been a below-average defender throughout his career, both with his range and arm.  While the advanced defensive metrics are flawed over small samples, they are much more accurate over larger samples.  Check out Fowler's defensive performance over the last five years, per DRS and UZR:

While many O's fans have incorrectly touted Fowler as a plus defender, he checks in consistently well below-average according to the defensive metrics.  However, while Fowler's defensive inefficiencies were glaring in center field, he should be able to sustain improved performance in the much less demanding right field.  As an auxiliary benefit, the Orioles now ensure that the plodding Mark Trumbo won't have to play the outfield in 2016 and can focus on what he does best: callously obliterating well-intentioned baseballs (and also striking out more frequently than me at a bar).  But while Fowler projects to be less of a defensive liability in right field, his relatively weak arm is a concern at a position that typically features the best arm in the outfield.

Of course, any analysis of the Fowler signing would be amiss without acknowledging that the Orioles will surrender a draft pick.  Assuming the team ultimately finalizes its deal with Yovani Gallardo, the Orioles will cough up their 29th pick in exchange for Fowler.¹  Despite this, Baltimore has acquitted themselves quite well here, acquiring a decent player at a very reasonable price who fits their needs.  The Orioles have lingering question marks in the starting rotation even if Gallardo is signed, but their offense just got markedly better with this move, particularly when you consider the replacement-level talent he ousted in right field.²  In what promises to be a hyper-competitive American League, perhaps this move could be enough to push Baltimore into the playoffs once again.

1: If Gallardo is signed, Baltimore will surrender the 14th pick for him and the 29th selection for Fowler.  If Gallardo's deal is voided, the Orioles will give up the 14th pick for Fowler.
2: Assuming Hyun-soo Kim mans left field, Baltimore was faced with the prospect of playing uninspiring options such as Dariel Alvarez, Henry Urrutia, Efren Navarro, Jimmy Paredes, or Nolan Reimold in right field before landing Fowler.