Thursday, March 10, 2016
The Sprained Ankle has Moved!
Check out my new baseball blog, The Rain Delay! Thank you all for your loyal readership!
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Reaction: Ian Desmond Signs Puzzling Deal with Rangers to Play Left Field
Last week, I speculated where former Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond would land. I put time into evaluating each team's prospects at shortstop and narrowed down the potential suitors to the following: the Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox, and Tampa Bay Rays. So, naturally, Ian Desmond pulled some devious chicanery on me and did something that came out of left field - quite literally, in fact.
It has been a trying offseason for Desmond, but even the most pessimistic pundits could not have predicted the paltry contract he would ultimately sign. By signing his client to a meager $8 million on a one-year deal (of course, for a lowly proletarian like myself, that's an incomprehensible amount of money), super-agent Scott Boras tacitly acknowledged that he misread the market for Desmond's services. The $8 million represents half the money Desmond would have received had he accepted the Nationals' qualifying offer at the dawn of the offseason. Making matters more frustrating for Boras and Desmond is the lucrative 7-year, $107 million extension the duo rejected in 2014.
Despite eschewing two objectively better offers, Desmond's pact with the Rangers does provide some upside for the Rangers new, embryonic left fielder. For one, Desmond will play his home games in a certified hitters' haven that will provide him with ample opportunities to pad his statistics during his second consecutive contract season. Desmond also has the privilege of joining a team that appears poised to contend deep into the season, a presumably important factor for a player who hasn't played on a losing club since 2011.
But still, this deal puts a definitive period on an offseason that has been an utter disaster for Desmond and attaches a rare-but-damaging scarlet letter to Scott Boras, who has built a well-deserved reputation as baseball's most ruthless negotiator. This situation for Desmond simply has way too much risk and has the potential to greatly imperil Desmond's career.
As Hanley Ramirez demonstrated in left field last season, the ability to switch positions is not something to be taken for granted, even in left field, which is regarded as one of the game's easiest positions to master. Conventional wisdom dictated that Ramirez would make a relatively smooth transition to left field. After all, if an air-headed Manny Ramirez could trudge his way toward a couple fly balls a game, why couldn't a former shortstop do it? While I am ashamed to admit that I was a proponent of this train-of-thought last offseason, I will not make the same mistake again. Changing positions can be a laborious task for a player, and have deleterious effects if it goes awry.
To be fair, Desmond is much more athletic and lithe than Ramirez, who gained a tremendous amount of weight in the 2014-2015 offseason in an apparent effort to bulk up and augment his power numbers. The body transformation rendered Ramirez' flexibility obsolete, as he haplessly chased after fly balls with the efficiency of a blind bat. Still, much of Ramirez' issues boiled down to his inability to read and track fly balls, a skill that takes time to grasp, even for the most adroit of outfielders. And while Ramirez had an entire offseason to prepare for his looming showdown with the dastardly intricacies of left field, Desmond only has a little over a month to get up to speed.
What happens if Desmond is unable to conquer the spacious left field of Globe Life Park? With so little committed to him, the win-now Rangers will not hesitate to bench him in favor of Justin Ruggiano, Ryan Rua, Josh Hamilton, or even top prospect Joey Gallo. And with the double play combination firmly established with Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor, Desmond's at-bats could be few and far between.
Even in the event that Desmond plays left field at a proficient level, he will hit the market in 2016 as a 31-year old a year removed from playing the position (shortstop) that was the root of a substantial portion of his value. And even if Desmond returns to his 2012-2014 robust form at the plate, his numbers look far less impressive through the distorted lens of executives who expect more productivity from a left fielder. So, essentially, in order to parlay his 2016 season into the lavish pay day he wants, Desmond will have to overcome a position change and a disconcerting four-year decline in his offensive numbers. And if he's unable to do it, Ian Desmond will long rue the day he turned down $107 million from the Washington Nationals.
It has been a trying offseason for Desmond, but even the most pessimistic pundits could not have predicted the paltry contract he would ultimately sign. By signing his client to a meager $8 million on a one-year deal (of course, for a lowly proletarian like myself, that's an incomprehensible amount of money), super-agent Scott Boras tacitly acknowledged that he misread the market for Desmond's services. The $8 million represents half the money Desmond would have received had he accepted the Nationals' qualifying offer at the dawn of the offseason. Making matters more frustrating for Boras and Desmond is the lucrative 7-year, $107 million extension the duo rejected in 2014.
Despite eschewing two objectively better offers, Desmond's pact with the Rangers does provide some upside for the Rangers new, embryonic left fielder. For one, Desmond will play his home games in a certified hitters' haven that will provide him with ample opportunities to pad his statistics during his second consecutive contract season. Desmond also has the privilege of joining a team that appears poised to contend deep into the season, a presumably important factor for a player who hasn't played on a losing club since 2011.
But still, this deal puts a definitive period on an offseason that has been an utter disaster for Desmond and attaches a rare-but-damaging scarlet letter to Scott Boras, who has built a well-deserved reputation as baseball's most ruthless negotiator. This situation for Desmond simply has way too much risk and has the potential to greatly imperil Desmond's career.
As Hanley Ramirez demonstrated in left field last season, the ability to switch positions is not something to be taken for granted, even in left field, which is regarded as one of the game's easiest positions to master. Conventional wisdom dictated that Ramirez would make a relatively smooth transition to left field. After all, if an air-headed Manny Ramirez could trudge his way toward a couple fly balls a game, why couldn't a former shortstop do it? While I am ashamed to admit that I was a proponent of this train-of-thought last offseason, I will not make the same mistake again. Changing positions can be a laborious task for a player, and have deleterious effects if it goes awry.
To be fair, Desmond is much more athletic and lithe than Ramirez, who gained a tremendous amount of weight in the 2014-2015 offseason in an apparent effort to bulk up and augment his power numbers. The body transformation rendered Ramirez' flexibility obsolete, as he haplessly chased after fly balls with the efficiency of a blind bat. Still, much of Ramirez' issues boiled down to his inability to read and track fly balls, a skill that takes time to grasp, even for the most adroit of outfielders. And while Ramirez had an entire offseason to prepare for his looming showdown with the dastardly intricacies of left field, Desmond only has a little over a month to get up to speed.
What happens if Desmond is unable to conquer the spacious left field of Globe Life Park? With so little committed to him, the win-now Rangers will not hesitate to bench him in favor of Justin Ruggiano, Ryan Rua, Josh Hamilton, or even top prospect Joey Gallo. And with the double play combination firmly established with Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor, Desmond's at-bats could be few and far between.
Even in the event that Desmond plays left field at a proficient level, he will hit the market in 2016 as a 31-year old a year removed from playing the position (shortstop) that was the root of a substantial portion of his value. And even if Desmond returns to his 2012-2014 robust form at the plate, his numbers look far less impressive through the distorted lens of executives who expect more productivity from a left fielder. So, essentially, in order to parlay his 2016 season into the lavish pay day he wants, Desmond will have to overcome a position change and a disconcerting four-year decline in his offensive numbers. And if he's unable to do it, Ian Desmond will long rue the day he turned down $107 million from the Washington Nationals.
Thursday, February 25, 2016
Dexter Fowler Spurns Orioles at The Altar, Returns to Chicago
After the Orioles culminated a wildly successful offseason by landing certified innings-eater Yovani Gallardo, I was ready to praise GM Dan Duquette. The research was finished, as was my first paragraph. But then, I got this text from my friend, a diehard Orioles fan:
What was he talking about? I viewed Fowler as an excellent signing for Baltimore and was surprised that my normally stoic, calm friend was so incensed. Then, I checked Twitter:
The first of these aforementioned players is Justin Morneau. Morneau, who turns 35 in May, has suffered through concussion issues in recent years, but is still a good hitter when healthy. Last year, in just 49 games, Morneau slashed his way to a vigorous .310/.363/.458 line. Of course, this comes with a caveat that Morneau played home games at America's greatest launch pad, Coors Field. But still, adjusting for park and league effects, Morneau was 7% better than average as a hitter last season--albeit in only 182 plate appearances. And in 2014, Morneau was 22% better than league average across 135 productive games. Morneau's power has dissipated since his heyday in Minnesota, but he would still become one of Baltimore's best on-base threats. Of course, health is a major concern.
Another free agent first base option is Pedro Alvarez, who is virtually a left-handed Mark Trumbo. The Pirates, frustrated with Alvarez's defensive inadequacy and propensity to strike out, decided to let Alvarez walk this offseason. However, this is still a hitter with prodigious power, one who will send a baseball to the moon if the pitcher throws it in his wheelhouse. While the Orioles would ideally like more of an on-base savant--rather than another boom-or-bust slugger--the thought of the potent Alvarez playing home games in Camden Yards may be too tantalizing to pass up. Last year, Camden Yards was rated as the 2nd most conducive ballpark for home runs, and is especially favorable for left-handed hitters. Put Alvarez, who has averaged 27.75 home runs over the past four seasons, in Baltimore for a full season and it would be surprising if he didn't hit at least 30 bombs.
Now, of course, if Baltimore signs either player, the Orioles defense will suffer. Mark Trumbo would likely shift from designated hitter to right field, a far-from-ideal proposition. But in late February, beggars can't be choosers, and the Orioles would be wise to pursue Morneau or Alvarez. From my viewpoint, Baltimore should eschew signing Morneau due to his health issues and ink human powder keg Pedro Alvarez to a one-year deal. This would leave Baltimore with a lineup looking something like this:
1) Hyun-Soo Kim LF (L)
2) Manny Machado 3B (R)
3) Chris Davis 1B (L)
4) Adam Jones CF (R)
5) Matt Wieters C (S)
6) Mark Trumbo RF (R)
7) Pedro Alvarez DH (L)
8) Jonathan Schoop 2B (R)
9) J.J. Hardy SS (R)
Despite lacking a prototypical leadoff hitter, this is a lineup that has the potential to go toe-to-toe with any American League team not located in Canada. However, Alvarez's paltry career splits of .203/.270/.332 versus left-handed pitchers demonstrate that he is much better suited for a platoon role.
Enter Marlon Byrd into the equation. Despite qualifying for near-geriatric status at age 38, Byrd remains a very productive hitter against left-handers, hitting a formidable .271/.324/.496 against southpaws in 2015. And like Alvarez, a team that signs Byrd will not have to surrender a draft selection. So, here is my proposal for Baltimore: sign Alvarez AND Byrd--and platoon them. Against left-handed pitchers, Baltimore's lineup would look like this:
1) Hyun-Soo Kim LF (L)
2) Manny Machado 3B (R)
3) Chris Davis 1B (L)
4) Adam Jones CF (R)
5) Matt Wieters C (S)
6) Mark Trumbo DH (R)
7) Marlon Byrd RF (R)
8) Jonathan Schoop 2B (R)
9) J.J. Hardy SS (R)
Make no mistake about it, though. Losing Fowler at the altar is a big blow for Baltimore. Their defense will suffer and the team will have little recourse at the leadoff spot if Korean import Hyun-Soo Kim is unable to translate his gaudy numbers from the Korean Baseball League to the Major League level. However, if GM Dan Duquette strikes quickly, he can still piece together a solid lineup from the remaining free agents.
1) Dexter Fowler CF (S)
2) Ben Zobrist 2B (S)
3) Anthony Rizzo 1B (L)
4) Kris Bryant 3B (R)
5) Kyle Schwarber LF (L)
6) Jason Heyward RF (L)
7) Miguel Montero C (L)
8) Pitcher
9) Addison Russell SS (R)
Goodness gracious. If you're a Cubs fan, now may be a good time to change your pants. While Chicago is firmly entrenched as the best team on paper, tread carefully before preordaining them as NL Central champions. Many paper champions, including last year's Nationals and the 2011 Red Sox, have thoroughly collapsed under the pressure--and the Cubs will be feeling the ire of their fans if things don't go as planned. The Cubs--armed with a heavy and balanced artillery of pitching, defense, power, and speed--are the clear team to beat as it stands now. But let's not coronate them just yet.
Wow. Ctrl+A+Delete. Fowler had shockingly pulled a DeAndre Jordan, spurning the Orioles to return to the Windy City. The ramifications of the move for both the Cubs and Orioles are widespread. I'll start with the Orioles, whose fans surely feel queasy after this unexpected gut punch.Dexter Fowler has re-signed with the #Cubs, per @MDGonzales. One year deal with mutual option.— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 25, 2016
Baltimore Orioles
After seemingly landing their coveted leadoff man and right fielder in one fell swoop, the Orioles are now forced to revert back to the drawing board. Unfortunately, with Spring Training already well underway, the free agent market is desolate, rife with tumbleweeds and little else. But there are still a few players available that can help Baltimore, even if the upgrades are more incremental by nature.The first of these aforementioned players is Justin Morneau. Morneau, who turns 35 in May, has suffered through concussion issues in recent years, but is still a good hitter when healthy. Last year, in just 49 games, Morneau slashed his way to a vigorous .310/.363/.458 line. Of course, this comes with a caveat that Morneau played home games at America's greatest launch pad, Coors Field. But still, adjusting for park and league effects, Morneau was 7% better than average as a hitter last season--albeit in only 182 plate appearances. And in 2014, Morneau was 22% better than league average across 135 productive games. Morneau's power has dissipated since his heyday in Minnesota, but he would still become one of Baltimore's best on-base threats. Of course, health is a major concern.
Another free agent first base option is Pedro Alvarez, who is virtually a left-handed Mark Trumbo. The Pirates, frustrated with Alvarez's defensive inadequacy and propensity to strike out, decided to let Alvarez walk this offseason. However, this is still a hitter with prodigious power, one who will send a baseball to the moon if the pitcher throws it in his wheelhouse. While the Orioles would ideally like more of an on-base savant--rather than another boom-or-bust slugger--the thought of the potent Alvarez playing home games in Camden Yards may be too tantalizing to pass up. Last year, Camden Yards was rated as the 2nd most conducive ballpark for home runs, and is especially favorable for left-handed hitters. Put Alvarez, who has averaged 27.75 home runs over the past four seasons, in Baltimore for a full season and it would be surprising if he didn't hit at least 30 bombs.
Now, of course, if Baltimore signs either player, the Orioles defense will suffer. Mark Trumbo would likely shift from designated hitter to right field, a far-from-ideal proposition. But in late February, beggars can't be choosers, and the Orioles would be wise to pursue Morneau or Alvarez. From my viewpoint, Baltimore should eschew signing Morneau due to his health issues and ink human powder keg Pedro Alvarez to a one-year deal. This would leave Baltimore with a lineup looking something like this:
1) Hyun-Soo Kim LF (L)
2) Manny Machado 3B (R)
3) Chris Davis 1B (L)
4) Adam Jones CF (R)
5) Matt Wieters C (S)
6) Mark Trumbo RF (R)
7) Pedro Alvarez DH (L)
8) Jonathan Schoop 2B (R)
9) J.J. Hardy SS (R)
Despite lacking a prototypical leadoff hitter, this is a lineup that has the potential to go toe-to-toe with any American League team not located in Canada. However, Alvarez's paltry career splits of .203/.270/.332 versus left-handed pitchers demonstrate that he is much better suited for a platoon role.
Enter Marlon Byrd into the equation. Despite qualifying for near-geriatric status at age 38, Byrd remains a very productive hitter against left-handers, hitting a formidable .271/.324/.496 against southpaws in 2015. And like Alvarez, a team that signs Byrd will not have to surrender a draft selection. So, here is my proposal for Baltimore: sign Alvarez AND Byrd--and platoon them. Against left-handed pitchers, Baltimore's lineup would look like this:
1) Hyun-Soo Kim LF (L)
2) Manny Machado 3B (R)
3) Chris Davis 1B (L)
4) Adam Jones CF (R)
5) Matt Wieters C (S)
6) Mark Trumbo DH (R)
7) Marlon Byrd RF (R)
8) Jonathan Schoop 2B (R)
9) J.J. Hardy SS (R)
Make no mistake about it, though. Losing Fowler at the altar is a big blow for Baltimore. Their defense will suffer and the team will have little recourse at the leadoff spot if Korean import Hyun-Soo Kim is unable to translate his gaudy numbers from the Korean Baseball League to the Major League level. However, if GM Dan Duquette strikes quickly, he can still piece together a solid lineup from the remaining free agents.
Chicago Cubs
I mean, where do I begin? The already-stacked Cubs somehow became even better today, and are now able to shift Jason Heyward back to right field, where he is more comfortable. In addition, the move pushes Cuban sensation Jorge Soler to the bench, providing the Cubs with either a powerful bat off the bench or a valuable trade chip. Their lineup is downright ludicrous. Check it out:1) Dexter Fowler CF (S)
2) Ben Zobrist 2B (S)
3) Anthony Rizzo 1B (L)
4) Kris Bryant 3B (R)
5) Kyle Schwarber LF (L)
6) Jason Heyward RF (L)
7) Miguel Montero C (L)
8) Pitcher
9) Addison Russell SS (R)
Goodness gracious. If you're a Cubs fan, now may be a good time to change your pants. While Chicago is firmly entrenched as the best team on paper, tread carefully before preordaining them as NL Central champions. Many paper champions, including last year's Nationals and the 2011 Red Sox, have thoroughly collapsed under the pressure--and the Cubs will be feeling the ire of their fans if things don't go as planned. The Cubs--armed with a heavy and balanced artillery of pitching, defense, power, and speed--are the clear team to beat as it stands now. But let's not coronate them just yet.
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Orioles, Dexter Fowler Agree to Three-Year Deal
Dexter Fowler has landed in Birdland, agreeing to terms on a 3-year, $33 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles. Fowler fills two conspicuous voids for the Orioles: a proficient leadoff hitter and a capable right fielder. Fowler's presence will enable manager Buck Showalter to move stalwart 3rd baseman Manny Machado down the lineup, granting Machado more opportunities to drive in runs.
Fowler is a prototypical leadoff hitter, equipped with both savvy on-base skills and above-average speed. His plate discipline will be a boon for Baltimore, as Fowler should score plenty of runs hitting ahead of Machado, Adam Jones, and Chris Davis. Moreover, Fowler showed no signs of slowing down last season for the Cubs, swiping 20 bags and plating 102 runs while posting a respectable .346 OBP. The sturdy OBP number looks even more impressive considering his BABIP of .308 was significantly below his career mark of .341, hinting that Fowler was a victim of bad luck. Fowler's peripherals--such as strikeout, walk, fly ball, and ground ball rates--all fell almost perfectly in line with his career norms. All the data suggests that Fowler is still in the prime of his career offensively despite turning 30 in March.
So, how does Fowler stack up defensively? Despite his speed, Fowler has been a below-average defender throughout his career, both with his range and arm. While the advanced defensive metrics are flawed over small samples, they are much more accurate over larger samples. Check out Fowler's defensive performance over the last five years, per DRS and UZR:
While many O's fans have incorrectly touted Fowler as a plus defender, he checks in consistently well below-average according to the defensive metrics. However, while Fowler's defensive inefficiencies were glaring in center field, he should be able to sustain improved performance in the much less demanding right field. As an auxiliary benefit, the Orioles now ensure that the plodding Mark Trumbo won't have to play the outfield in 2016 and can focus on what he does best: callously obliterating well-intentioned baseballs (and also striking out more frequently than me at a bar). But while Fowler projects to be less of a defensive liability in right field, his relatively weak arm is a concern at a position that typically features the best arm in the outfield.
Of course, any analysis of the Fowler signing would be amiss without acknowledging that the Orioles will surrender a draft pick. Assuming the team ultimately finalizes its deal with Yovani Gallardo, the Orioles will cough up their 29th pick in exchange for Fowler.1 Despite this, Baltimore has acquitted themselves quite well here, acquiring a decent player at a very reasonable price who fits their needs. The Orioles have lingering question marks in the starting rotation even if Gallardo is signed, but their offense just got markedly better with this move, particularly when you consider the replacement-level talent he ousted in right field.2 In what promises to be a hyper-competitive American League, perhaps this move could be enough to push Baltimore into the playoffs once again.
1: If Gallardo is signed, Baltimore will surrender the 14th pick for him and the 29th selection for Fowler. If Gallardo's deal is voided, the Orioles will give up the 14th pick for Fowler.
2: Assuming Hyun-soo Kim mans left field, Baltimore was faced with the prospect of playing uninspiring options such as Dariel Alvarez, Henry Urrutia, Efren Navarro, Jimmy Paredes, or Nolan Reimold in right field before landing Fowler.
 |
| The Orioles hope Dexter Fowler will be smiling frequently in 2016. |
So, how does Fowler stack up defensively? Despite his speed, Fowler has been a below-average defender throughout his career, both with his range and arm. While the advanced defensive metrics are flawed over small samples, they are much more accurate over larger samples. Check out Fowler's defensive performance over the last five years, per DRS and UZR:
While many O's fans have incorrectly touted Fowler as a plus defender, he checks in consistently well below-average according to the defensive metrics. However, while Fowler's defensive inefficiencies were glaring in center field, he should be able to sustain improved performance in the much less demanding right field. As an auxiliary benefit, the Orioles now ensure that the plodding Mark Trumbo won't have to play the outfield in 2016 and can focus on what he does best: callously obliterating well-intentioned baseballs (and also striking out more frequently than me at a bar). But while Fowler projects to be less of a defensive liability in right field, his relatively weak arm is a concern at a position that typically features the best arm in the outfield.
Of course, any analysis of the Fowler signing would be amiss without acknowledging that the Orioles will surrender a draft pick. Assuming the team ultimately finalizes its deal with Yovani Gallardo, the Orioles will cough up their 29th pick in exchange for Fowler.1 Despite this, Baltimore has acquitted themselves quite well here, acquiring a decent player at a very reasonable price who fits their needs. The Orioles have lingering question marks in the starting rotation even if Gallardo is signed, but their offense just got markedly better with this move, particularly when you consider the replacement-level talent he ousted in right field.2 In what promises to be a hyper-competitive American League, perhaps this move could be enough to push Baltimore into the playoffs once again.
1: If Gallardo is signed, Baltimore will surrender the 14th pick for him and the 29th selection for Fowler. If Gallardo's deal is voided, the Orioles will give up the 14th pick for Fowler.
2: Assuming Hyun-soo Kim mans left field, Baltimore was faced with the prospect of playing uninspiring options such as Dariel Alvarez, Henry Urrutia, Efren Navarro, Jimmy Paredes, or Nolan Reimold in right field before landing Fowler.
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Finding a Home for Ian Desmond
It's been a long, lonely winter for Ian Desmond. Burdened by a subpar 2015 season and the draft pick compensation attached to him, the former Nationals shortstop is without a home at the dawn of Spring Training. Fortunately for Desmond, he remains a talented, durable player at a premium position so he should find a landing spot shortly. It just may not be at the price he wants.
I narrowed down potential Desmond suitors using the following rudimentary criteria: the team lacks an established shortstop (duh) and the team either intends to compete this year or holds a top ten draft pick. If a team holds a top ten pick this year, they are exempt from forfeiting their 1st pick and instead surrender their second round draft pick. This is a very important distinction.
Based on this criteria, I identified three teams: the Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies, and Chicago White Sox. With that said, I'll make a case for why each of these teams should sign Desmond, why they shouldn't, and assess the likelihood of each possibility.
Why They Should Sign Desmond: The bulk of the discussion regarding the AL East has focused on Boston's major pitching acquisitions, the Yankees' super-bullpen, Toronto's strong 2015 season, and Baltimore's retaining of Chris Davis and Matt Wieters. However, the Tampa Bay Rays have very quietly positioned themselves to compete in a division that promises to be as competitive as ever. Armed with a stable of young, talented starting pitchers headlined by ace Chris Archer, the Rays hope to build on last season's 80-win campaign. Tampa Bay allowed the 5th fewest runs in the American League last year, and it's not difficult to foresee additional improvement in the run prevention department in 2016 due to the projected July return of the wildly underrated Alex Cobb and the probable mid-season arrival of star pitching prospect and Baseball America's reigning Minor League Player of the Year, Blake Snell.
While Tampa Bay's pitching staff is loaded with top-end talent and quality depth, its offense--which scored the 2nd fewest runs in the American League last season--lags behind that of its AL East counterparts. The acquisition of power-hitting outfielder Corey Dickerson should bolster the middle of the Rays lineup, provided that he can return to full strength from a nagging plantar fasciitis injury. Adjusted for league and park effects1, Dickerson was 19% better than the average hitter last year and 40% better in 2014. While moving from the Coors Field bandbox to the Trop will hurts his overall numbers, Dickerson is one of baseball's most unheralded power hitters, as indicated by his .255 ISO in 2014 and .232 ISO in 2015. But Dickerson alone cannot carry the Rays to prominence. And that's where Ian Desmond fits into the equation.
While the Rays acquired shortstop Brad Miller from the Mariners this offseason, he is a below-average defender who cannot hit lefties. And given his ability to play numerous positions, Miller appears better suited for a role as a utility man who plays nearly exclusively against right-handed pitchers. While Ian Desmond has been error-prone throughout his career, he represents a slight upgrade defensively over Miller and a marked improvement offensively. A competent hitter against both lefties and righties throughout his career, Desmond had three consecutive 20-20 seasons from 2012-2014 while averaging an excellent 4.5 fWAR. Desmond's first half of last season was disastrous, but he rebounded quite nicely, posting a solid .777 OPS in the second half, which falls nicely in line with his impressive offensive production 2012-2014. Tampa Bay's status as one of baseball's most impoverished teams usually precludes them from obtaining premium talent in free agency. From my vantage point, the Rays should pursue Desmond as he represents a potential star player who could be obtained for mid-range money. An offer of 3 years and $45-$55 million could make sense for both sides, providing Desmond financial security with the opportunity to hit the free agent market again at age 33 and supplying the Rays with viable lineup protection for Evan Longoria and Corey Dickerson.
Why They Shouldn't Sign Desmond: The Rays own the 13th selection in the upcoming first-year player draft, a valuable cost-controlled asset, particularly for a team devoid of financial resources. While the 2012-2014 version of Desmond would generate tremendous surplus value on my proposed contract, the 2015 version would represent poor value. Considering Desmond's age (30) and poor 2015 performance, this may not be a risk the cash-strapped Rays are willing to take.
Why They Should Sign Desmond: The Rockies hold the 4th pick in the upcoming draft, meaning the club would surrender its second round pick if they sign Desmond. While incumbent shortstop Jose Reyes faces an imminent suspension for an offseason domestic violence incident, the Rockies are awaiting word from Commissioner Rob Manfred in order to determine their path forward. Should Reyes be suspended for a significant portion of 2016, Desmond would be a logical fit in his stead. While Colorado's--umm, rocky--pitching staff will almost surely prevent it from seizing a playoff berth particularly in the formidable NL West, the club could view Desmond as a trade asset come July 31st. On a one-year deal, Colorado is a sensible location for both the club and a player seeking to rebuild his value. If Desmond performs well, Colorado could recoup prospects at the Trade Deadline that far exceed the current cost for Desmond: a second round pick and money. In addition, Desmond's reputation as a grinder and consummate professional (see former teammate and esteemed veteran Chad Tracy's praise below) could only help the development of the Rockies burgeoning superstar, third baseman Nolan Arenado. Plan B would be to hold on to Desmond throughout the season and obtain a compensatory draft selection when he changes teams, although that seems unlikely considering the looming presence of the lavishly-paid Reyes.
Why They Shouldn't Sign Desmond: If the Reyes suspension is shorter than anticipated, the Rockies would be squarely in the crosshairs, forced to bench its highest paid player, which would almost surely create a toxic clubhouse environment. Moreover, the Rockies will find an arid market for Desmond come July if he struggles. The unsettling prospect of having Desmond and Reyes on the same roster throughout the year may scare the Rockies away from committing to Desmond.
Why They Should Sign Desmond: The White Sox had a disappointing 76-win campaign last season, but optimism is abound this year at White Sox camp, in large part due to the acquisition of All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier, who will pair with Jose Abreu to form perhaps baseball's most vaunted slugging duo. The 2015 White Sox boasted a solid pitching staff that accumulated the 3rd highest fWAR amongst American League teams, but were undone by the abominable performance of their position players, who somehow managed to compile only a meager 3.1 fWAR--by far the worst in all of baseball. If the White Sox can get anything out of 2015 albatrosses Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, and Avisail Garcia, this team could find itself in the midst of the AL Central race deep into the season. While the South Siders hope these three players can bounce back, they could use further reinforcement at the shortstop position. Although the White Sox are publicly bullish on Tyler Saladino, he struggled mightily in his first taste of big league action last year, as did veteran Jimmy Rollins, who was signed to a minor league deal yesterday. The White Sox are poised to move forward with Rollins or Saladino at shortstop, but neither player's presence should preclude the team from signing a potential impact player like Desmond. Desmond would slot in nicely in the 6th spot of Chicago's lineup, between LaRoche and new second baseman Brett Lawrie, while providing much-needed lineup depth. Due to the impending arrival of top shortstop prospect Tim Anderson in either late 2016 or early 2017, the White Sox will likely only want Desmond on a one-year deal, a proposition that would be appealing to a player who would like to rebuild his market value playing on a potential contender. In addition, due to its possession of the draft's 10th pick, Chicago would not have to renounce its first round selection.
Why They Shouldn't Sign Desmond: If the White Sox are satisfied with the performance of Rollins or Saladino, or if the team believes Anderson will be ready to take the reigns sooner than expected, signing Desmond and losing a second round pick would be unpalatable.
As I've demonstrated, the market for Ian Desmond is much less robust than he anticipated a year ago. Many teams--including the Dodgers, Astros, Indians, Brewers, and Phillies--have had star shortstop prospects either reach the big leagues in 2015 or their arrival is imminent. Others, such as the Mets and Padres, eschewed pursuing Desmond in favor of less pricey options. And as a result, Ian Desmond has become the latest victim of the prohibitive qualifying offer.
While no destination listed above is perfect, I would rank Colorado as his most likely destination. The Rockies can offer the optimal combination for a player hoping to re-establish his value on a one-year deal: home games in a hitter's haven and a low-pressure environment. The Rockies, unlike the other two clubs, have a glaring vacancy at shortstop--if Reyes is suspended long-term, of course--and can parlay Desmond into cost-controlled assets come July 31st.
The White Sox can also offer a one-year, "prove it" deal, but play in a pitcher's park. From the team's perspective, Desmond would improve the White Sox but is a luxury due to the team's alternatives.
The Rays, meanwhile, have an even better shortstop alternative than the White Sox in Brad Miller, and are averse to lucrative contracts. The club would have to sign Desmond to a multi-year deal since it would surrender its prized first round pick. This confluence of factors makes the Rays an improbable landing spot.
If Desmond isn't amenable to the offers from these clubs, he could wait for an injury to open up a spot for him or even probe the Nationals about a possible reunion. The latter option is doubtful considering Washington's confidence in blue-chip prospect Trea Turner and the presence of veterans Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew, but then again, nobody predicted Stephen Drew would re-sign with the Red Sox in late May of 2014, either. Perhaps Desmond will play the waiting game deep into the season a la Drew in 2014, but the guess here is he signs a one-year deal worth around $18 million with either the Rockies or White Sox before Opening Day.
1: This is based on wRC+. wRC+ is, in my opinion, the best singular statistic that captures a player's overall contributions from the batter's box. Visit Fangraphs for more information.
I narrowed down potential Desmond suitors using the following rudimentary criteria: the team lacks an established shortstop (duh) and the team either intends to compete this year or holds a top ten draft pick. If a team holds a top ten pick this year, they are exempt from forfeiting their 1st pick and instead surrender their second round draft pick. This is a very important distinction.
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| Where will Ian Desmond turn double plays in 2016? |
Tampa Bay Rays
Why They Should Sign Desmond: The bulk of the discussion regarding the AL East has focused on Boston's major pitching acquisitions, the Yankees' super-bullpen, Toronto's strong 2015 season, and Baltimore's retaining of Chris Davis and Matt Wieters. However, the Tampa Bay Rays have very quietly positioned themselves to compete in a division that promises to be as competitive as ever. Armed with a stable of young, talented starting pitchers headlined by ace Chris Archer, the Rays hope to build on last season's 80-win campaign. Tampa Bay allowed the 5th fewest runs in the American League last year, and it's not difficult to foresee additional improvement in the run prevention department in 2016 due to the projected July return of the wildly underrated Alex Cobb and the probable mid-season arrival of star pitching prospect and Baseball America's reigning Minor League Player of the Year, Blake Snell.
While Tampa Bay's pitching staff is loaded with top-end talent and quality depth, its offense--which scored the 2nd fewest runs in the American League last season--lags behind that of its AL East counterparts. The acquisition of power-hitting outfielder Corey Dickerson should bolster the middle of the Rays lineup, provided that he can return to full strength from a nagging plantar fasciitis injury. Adjusted for league and park effects1, Dickerson was 19% better than the average hitter last year and 40% better in 2014. While moving from the Coors Field bandbox to the Trop will hurts his overall numbers, Dickerson is one of baseball's most unheralded power hitters, as indicated by his .255 ISO in 2014 and .232 ISO in 2015. But Dickerson alone cannot carry the Rays to prominence. And that's where Ian Desmond fits into the equation.
While the Rays acquired shortstop Brad Miller from the Mariners this offseason, he is a below-average defender who cannot hit lefties. And given his ability to play numerous positions, Miller appears better suited for a role as a utility man who plays nearly exclusively against right-handed pitchers. While Ian Desmond has been error-prone throughout his career, he represents a slight upgrade defensively over Miller and a marked improvement offensively. A competent hitter against both lefties and righties throughout his career, Desmond had three consecutive 20-20 seasons from 2012-2014 while averaging an excellent 4.5 fWAR. Desmond's first half of last season was disastrous, but he rebounded quite nicely, posting a solid .777 OPS in the second half, which falls nicely in line with his impressive offensive production 2012-2014. Tampa Bay's status as one of baseball's most impoverished teams usually precludes them from obtaining premium talent in free agency. From my vantage point, the Rays should pursue Desmond as he represents a potential star player who could be obtained for mid-range money. An offer of 3 years and $45-$55 million could make sense for both sides, providing Desmond financial security with the opportunity to hit the free agent market again at age 33 and supplying the Rays with viable lineup protection for Evan Longoria and Corey Dickerson.
Why They Shouldn't Sign Desmond: The Rays own the 13th selection in the upcoming first-year player draft, a valuable cost-controlled asset, particularly for a team devoid of financial resources. While the 2012-2014 version of Desmond would generate tremendous surplus value on my proposed contract, the 2015 version would represent poor value. Considering Desmond's age (30) and poor 2015 performance, this may not be a risk the cash-strapped Rays are willing to take.
Colorado Rockies
Why They Should Sign Desmond: The Rockies hold the 4th pick in the upcoming draft, meaning the club would surrender its second round pick if they sign Desmond. While incumbent shortstop Jose Reyes faces an imminent suspension for an offseason domestic violence incident, the Rockies are awaiting word from Commissioner Rob Manfred in order to determine their path forward. Should Reyes be suspended for a significant portion of 2016, Desmond would be a logical fit in his stead. While Colorado's--umm, rocky--pitching staff will almost surely prevent it from seizing a playoff berth particularly in the formidable NL West, the club could view Desmond as a trade asset come July 31st. On a one-year deal, Colorado is a sensible location for both the club and a player seeking to rebuild his value. If Desmond performs well, Colorado could recoup prospects at the Trade Deadline that far exceed the current cost for Desmond: a second round pick and money. In addition, Desmond's reputation as a grinder and consummate professional (see former teammate and esteemed veteran Chad Tracy's praise below) could only help the development of the Rockies burgeoning superstar, third baseman Nolan Arenado. Plan B would be to hold on to Desmond throughout the season and obtain a compensatory draft selection when he changes teams, although that seems unlikely considering the looming presence of the lavishly-paid Reyes.
@IDesmond20 is a stud and the best ss I played with in my career. He plays hurt,he's a leader,POP in middle.Makes any team better.lets go!— Chad Tracy (@catracy18) February 23, 2016
Why They Shouldn't Sign Desmond: If the Reyes suspension is shorter than anticipated, the Rockies would be squarely in the crosshairs, forced to bench its highest paid player, which would almost surely create a toxic clubhouse environment. Moreover, the Rockies will find an arid market for Desmond come July if he struggles. The unsettling prospect of having Desmond and Reyes on the same roster throughout the year may scare the Rockies away from committing to Desmond.
Chicago White Sox
Why They Should Sign Desmond: The White Sox had a disappointing 76-win campaign last season, but optimism is abound this year at White Sox camp, in large part due to the acquisition of All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier, who will pair with Jose Abreu to form perhaps baseball's most vaunted slugging duo. The 2015 White Sox boasted a solid pitching staff that accumulated the 3rd highest fWAR amongst American League teams, but were undone by the abominable performance of their position players, who somehow managed to compile only a meager 3.1 fWAR--by far the worst in all of baseball. If the White Sox can get anything out of 2015 albatrosses Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, and Avisail Garcia, this team could find itself in the midst of the AL Central race deep into the season. While the South Siders hope these three players can bounce back, they could use further reinforcement at the shortstop position. Although the White Sox are publicly bullish on Tyler Saladino, he struggled mightily in his first taste of big league action last year, as did veteran Jimmy Rollins, who was signed to a minor league deal yesterday. The White Sox are poised to move forward with Rollins or Saladino at shortstop, but neither player's presence should preclude the team from signing a potential impact player like Desmond. Desmond would slot in nicely in the 6th spot of Chicago's lineup, between LaRoche and new second baseman Brett Lawrie, while providing much-needed lineup depth. Due to the impending arrival of top shortstop prospect Tim Anderson in either late 2016 or early 2017, the White Sox will likely only want Desmond on a one-year deal, a proposition that would be appealing to a player who would like to rebuild his market value playing on a potential contender. In addition, due to its possession of the draft's 10th pick, Chicago would not have to renounce its first round selection.
Why They Shouldn't Sign Desmond: If the White Sox are satisfied with the performance of Rollins or Saladino, or if the team believes Anderson will be ready to take the reigns sooner than expected, signing Desmond and losing a second round pick would be unpalatable.
So, Where Will He Sign?
As I've demonstrated, the market for Ian Desmond is much less robust than he anticipated a year ago. Many teams--including the Dodgers, Astros, Indians, Brewers, and Phillies--have had star shortstop prospects either reach the big leagues in 2015 or their arrival is imminent. Others, such as the Mets and Padres, eschewed pursuing Desmond in favor of less pricey options. And as a result, Ian Desmond has become the latest victim of the prohibitive qualifying offer.
While no destination listed above is perfect, I would rank Colorado as his most likely destination. The Rockies can offer the optimal combination for a player hoping to re-establish his value on a one-year deal: home games in a hitter's haven and a low-pressure environment. The Rockies, unlike the other two clubs, have a glaring vacancy at shortstop--if Reyes is suspended long-term, of course--and can parlay Desmond into cost-controlled assets come July 31st.
The White Sox can also offer a one-year, "prove it" deal, but play in a pitcher's park. From the team's perspective, Desmond would improve the White Sox but is a luxury due to the team's alternatives.
The Rays, meanwhile, have an even better shortstop alternative than the White Sox in Brad Miller, and are averse to lucrative contracts. The club would have to sign Desmond to a multi-year deal since it would surrender its prized first round pick. This confluence of factors makes the Rays an improbable landing spot.
If Desmond isn't amenable to the offers from these clubs, he could wait for an injury to open up a spot for him or even probe the Nationals about a possible reunion. The latter option is doubtful considering Washington's confidence in blue-chip prospect Trea Turner and the presence of veterans Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew, but then again, nobody predicted Stephen Drew would re-sign with the Red Sox in late May of 2014, either. Perhaps Desmond will play the waiting game deep into the season a la Drew in 2014, but the guess here is he signs a one-year deal worth around $18 million with either the Rockies or White Sox before Opening Day.
1: This is based on wRC+. wRC+ is, in my opinion, the best singular statistic that captures a player's overall contributions from the batter's box. Visit Fangraphs for more information.
Monday, February 22, 2016
Pablo Sandoval's Weight and Defiance are Big Causes for Concern
Every year, Spring Training brings forth a cascade of optimism and represents a rebirth of the things baseball fans love the most. The interminable days of cold, dreary weather are replaced by the balmy and inviting Florida sun. The howling winter winds are long gone, hostilely overtaken by the beautiful polyphony of the ball hitting the palm of the mitt and the booming, yet comforting, crack of the bat. Pitchers may claim to have added a new pitch to their repertoire. Many players, coming off of a winter of a rigorous weight-lifting and conditioning regimen, boast about being in the best shape of their life, a phrase that has become as trite as a nascent sorority sister "loving her big."
Well, yesterday the baseball world learned that Pablo Sandoval, unequivocally and unapologetically, loves his big too. Sporting team-issued apparel and a protruding belly so massive that you would think he was with child, Pablo Sandoval arrived to Red Sox camp. And, suddenly, the idyllic and placid nature of Red Sox camp had become engulfed with a torrential downpour of negativity and scorn.
Even more disconcerting than Sandoval's grotesque appearance is the 3rd baseman's conspicuous obstinacy. After a dreadful season in which he hit .245/.292/.366 and badly regressed on defense, Sandoval spoke to reporters Sunday with an alarming lack of self-awareness.
Asked if he had anything to prove after such an abysmal 2015 campaign, Sandoval retorted, "No, I don't got nothing to prove." He even declined to label last season a disappointment, saying "It's not a disappointment, it's baseball."
Okay, perhaps those quotes weren't too bad. Maybe this was simply a player who was eager to forget last season and didn't want to give the harsh Boston media a self-deprecating quote.
But then Sandoval's words took a turn for the worse, with his words seemingly becoming more odious by the syllable.
"I don’t weigh in at all,” Sandoval quipped, when asked how much weight he lost over the offseason. “I just do my work, try to do everything I can. I don’t weigh in all offseason. I just try to get better, be in better position, be an athlete.”
Wow. He didn't weigh himself at all? That sounds disingenuous at best, particularly for, you know, a guy that is paid $19 million per year to play a sport for a living.
But somehow, the train wreck only got worse, evolving rapidly from a mild typhoon into a Category 5 hurricane.
A reporter continued to fuel the storm, asking Sandoval if anyone in the organization requested him to lose weight over the offseason.
"Nope," replied a matter-of-fact Hurricane Pablo.
Nope? Really? As MassLive.com reported, then-interim manager Torey Lovullo made it clear entering the offseason that the Red Sox instructed Sandoval to lose weight before the start of the 2016 season.
While Sandoval has succeeded throughout his career in spite of his large waistline, his 2015 season was directly hindered because of his overinflated physique. His normally steady defense degenerated into a horror show in 2015 due to his inability to react quickly or transfer his weight on throws to first base. It doesn't take a bariatric surgeon to deduce that these newfangled issues were directly correlated to Sandoval's weight.
And that's what is so disappointing about this for Red Sox fans. Pablo Sandoval is a three-time World Series champion, a player who only seems to improve as the stakes get bigger. He knows what it's like to be at the pinnacle of the sport, to experience the euphoric high that accompanies winning a championship. But, as his disastrous Spring Training arrival demonstrates, he doesn't seem willing to make the sacrifices that champions make. And that's a shame. Perhaps Sandoval will have a resurgent season in his sophomore year in Boston. But what are the odds of that happening? Fat chance.
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| Pablo Sandoval arrived at Red Sox camp yesterday. |
Even more disconcerting than Sandoval's grotesque appearance is the 3rd baseman's conspicuous obstinacy. After a dreadful season in which he hit .245/.292/.366 and badly regressed on defense, Sandoval spoke to reporters Sunday with an alarming lack of self-awareness.
Asked if he had anything to prove after such an abysmal 2015 campaign, Sandoval retorted, "No, I don't got nothing to prove." He even declined to label last season a disappointment, saying "It's not a disappointment, it's baseball."
Okay, perhaps those quotes weren't too bad. Maybe this was simply a player who was eager to forget last season and didn't want to give the harsh Boston media a self-deprecating quote.
But then Sandoval's words took a turn for the worse, with his words seemingly becoming more odious by the syllable.
"I don’t weigh in at all,” Sandoval quipped, when asked how much weight he lost over the offseason. “I just do my work, try to do everything I can. I don’t weigh in all offseason. I just try to get better, be in better position, be an athlete.”
Wow. He didn't weigh himself at all? That sounds disingenuous at best, particularly for, you know, a guy that is paid $19 million per year to play a sport for a living.
But somehow, the train wreck only got worse, evolving rapidly from a mild typhoon into a Category 5 hurricane.
A reporter continued to fuel the storm, asking Sandoval if anyone in the organization requested him to lose weight over the offseason.
"Nope," replied a matter-of-fact Hurricane Pablo.
Nope? Really? As MassLive.com reported, then-interim manager Torey Lovullo made it clear entering the offseason that the Red Sox instructed Sandoval to lose weight before the start of the 2016 season.
While Sandoval has succeeded throughout his career in spite of his large waistline, his 2015 season was directly hindered because of his overinflated physique. His normally steady defense degenerated into a horror show in 2015 due to his inability to react quickly or transfer his weight on throws to first base. It doesn't take a bariatric surgeon to deduce that these newfangled issues were directly correlated to Sandoval's weight.
And that's what is so disappointing about this for Red Sox fans. Pablo Sandoval is a three-time World Series champion, a player who only seems to improve as the stakes get bigger. He knows what it's like to be at the pinnacle of the sport, to experience the euphoric high that accompanies winning a championship. But, as his disastrous Spring Training arrival demonstrates, he doesn't seem willing to make the sacrifices that champions make. And that's a shame. Perhaps Sandoval will have a resurgent season in his sophomore year in Boston. But what are the odds of that happening? Fat chance.
Friday, February 19, 2016
Rick Porcello: Boston's Most Important Player
Last season, the Boston Red Sox finished in last place in the AL East for the third time in four years, an utterly unacceptable reality for a team with the financial muscle that Boston can freely flex. The overwhelming majority of the blame for the dismal 2015 season has been justifiably placed on Boston's prized offseason acquisitions: Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval and Rick Porcello. The trio combined for a staggeringly awful -2.2 fWAR.
The Great Hanley Ramirez Left Field Experiment of 2015TM was a horror show, with Ramirez turning routine fly balls into adventures with such frequency that you would think he was auditioning for National Treasure 4. In just 105 games, Ramirez accumulated a ghastly -19 Defensive Runs Saved. Making matters worse, Ramirez had by far the worst offensive season of his career, seeing his on-base percentage plummet, along with his power, which completely dissipated after a torrid April at the plate.1 If you want visual evidence of Ramirez' defensive ineptitude, see the video below. But I warn you: viewer discretion is strongly advised.
While Boston certainly needs production out of Ramirez and Sandoval this year if it hopes to win the American League East, the most crucial of Boston's three 2015 acquisitions is Rick Porcello.
Porcello inked a lucrative 4 year, $82.5 million extension in early April 2015, which now appears to be such a waste of money that you would think the Red Sox contributed to a Jeb! super PAC. All jokes aside, Porcello still has a chance to prove he is worthy of such a hefty investment.
In 2015, Rick Porcello lost his identity as a pitcher, finishing the year with a lousy 4.92 ERA. After establishing himself as one of baseball's most prolific groundball pitchers, Porcello diverted from the formula that made him successful, throwing more four-seam and cut fastballs and less two-seamers and sliders. While the change in pitch mix yielded Porcello's career best 20.2% strikeout rate, it also resulted in Porcello surrendering a career-worst 25 home runs.
"I really started to struggle and got off track with my identity as a pitcher," Porcello told CSN New England's Jess Moran upon arriving to Spring Training this year. "First and foremost, try and keep the ball down and sink it. And really I stopped doing that. I kind of jumped ship on who I was and found myself struggling even worse."
But there were signs of optimism for Porcello after August 2nd, when he took a trip to the disabled list. Using the time off to make adjustments, Porcello returned from the disabled list with a vengeance. Per Brooks Baseball, in his final eight starts, Porcello threw his sinker and slider 53% of the time compared to just 41% of the time over his previous 20 starts. In his last eight starts, he also decreased his usage of the four seam and cut fastballs from 35% to 22%. The altered pitch mix caused Porcello's ground ball rate to rise with a corresponding drop in his home run rate. Overall, Porcello posted a sparkling 3.14 ERA over his final eight starts, resembling the pitcher he was in 2014 when he posted a 3.43 ERA over 204.2 innings.
While Rick Porcello will probably never match the 3.14 ERA over the course of a full season (his career-best is 3.43), he proved that he still can be a good pitcher if he just tries to be himself. And the Red Sox need him to be effective if they have any hope of returning to prominence this season. With David Price, a bona fide ace, in the fold, Boston has one horse it can count on to produce this season. But what other pitcher can be relied upon to produce 200 quality innings?
It's certainly not Clay Buchholz, who has made a trip to the disabled list for six consecutive years. That guy does not appear to be Joe Kelly, who has yet to parlay his raw arm talent into consistent results, and has never thrown even 135 innings in a season. Eduardo Rodriguez? While Rodriguez showed flashes of brilliance last season and demonstrated precocious poise on the mound, he is still unpolished and prone to inconsistency and pitch tipping.
This level of uncertainty in the starting rotation underscores the importance of Rick Porcello to the Red Sox. Armed with a lethal bullpen, formidable lineup, and stellar outfield defense, the Red Sox are set up to compete in 2016. But all the bright spots of this roster will go to waste if the Red Sox cannot find a reliable number 2 starter behind David Price. The Red Sox need Rick Porcello to be this guy. And he can be. He just has to be himself.
1: Ramirez' struggles at the plate after April appear to be caused by an injury. Ramirez was injured on May 4th against the Rays, banging his left shoulder hard against the unforgiving left field foul wall at Fenway Park. At the time of his injury, Ramirez had 10 home runs and a robust .949 OPS. After the injury, hit just 9 home runs and ended the season with a medicore .717 OPS.
The Great Hanley Ramirez Left Field Experiment of 2015TM was a horror show, with Ramirez turning routine fly balls into adventures with such frequency that you would think he was auditioning for National Treasure 4. In just 105 games, Ramirez accumulated a ghastly -19 Defensive Runs Saved. Making matters worse, Ramirez had by far the worst offensive season of his career, seeing his on-base percentage plummet, along with his power, which completely dissipated after a torrid April at the plate.1 If you want visual evidence of Ramirez' defensive ineptitude, see the video below. But I warn you: viewer discretion is strongly advised.
Much to the chagrin of Boston fans, Pablo Sandoval didn't fare much better in his first year in Boston. The rotund third baseman's OPS fell for the 5th consecutive season, tumbling all the way to a lowly .658 in 2015. He even eschewed switch-hitting for the first time in his career due to his horrendous performance as a right-handed hitter. Despite his bulbous frame, Sandoval has long been regarded as a plus defender due to his soft hands and quick reflexes. In 2015, that was far from the case. Sandoval struggled mightily reacting to balls hit toward his backhand side, seemingly paralyzed like a monolith cemented to the ground. Even on the rare occasions that Sandoval peered into his glove and locked eyes with those elusive baseballs, he rarely was able to transfer his weight quickly enough to make a timely throw to first base.tbh, i think hanley ramirez got robbed in those gold glove nominations pic.twitter.com/nPXsAtkUSh— Joon Lee (@iamjoonlee) October 29, 2015
While Boston certainly needs production out of Ramirez and Sandoval this year if it hopes to win the American League East, the most crucial of Boston's three 2015 acquisitions is Rick Porcello.
Porcello inked a lucrative 4 year, $82.5 million extension in early April 2015, which now appears to be such a waste of money that you would think the Red Sox contributed to a Jeb! super PAC. All jokes aside, Porcello still has a chance to prove he is worthy of such a hefty investment.
In 2015, Rick Porcello lost his identity as a pitcher, finishing the year with a lousy 4.92 ERA. After establishing himself as one of baseball's most prolific groundball pitchers, Porcello diverted from the formula that made him successful, throwing more four-seam and cut fastballs and less two-seamers and sliders. While the change in pitch mix yielded Porcello's career best 20.2% strikeout rate, it also resulted in Porcello surrendering a career-worst 25 home runs.
"I really started to struggle and got off track with my identity as a pitcher," Porcello told CSN New England's Jess Moran upon arriving to Spring Training this year. "First and foremost, try and keep the ball down and sink it. And really I stopped doing that. I kind of jumped ship on who I was and found myself struggling even worse."
But there were signs of optimism for Porcello after August 2nd, when he took a trip to the disabled list. Using the time off to make adjustments, Porcello returned from the disabled list with a vengeance. Per Brooks Baseball, in his final eight starts, Porcello threw his sinker and slider 53% of the time compared to just 41% of the time over his previous 20 starts. In his last eight starts, he also decreased his usage of the four seam and cut fastballs from 35% to 22%. The altered pitch mix caused Porcello's ground ball rate to rise with a corresponding drop in his home run rate. Overall, Porcello posted a sparkling 3.14 ERA over his final eight starts, resembling the pitcher he was in 2014 when he posted a 3.43 ERA over 204.2 innings.
While Rick Porcello will probably never match the 3.14 ERA over the course of a full season (his career-best is 3.43), he proved that he still can be a good pitcher if he just tries to be himself. And the Red Sox need him to be effective if they have any hope of returning to prominence this season. With David Price, a bona fide ace, in the fold, Boston has one horse it can count on to produce this season. But what other pitcher can be relied upon to produce 200 quality innings?
This level of uncertainty in the starting rotation underscores the importance of Rick Porcello to the Red Sox. Armed with a lethal bullpen, formidable lineup, and stellar outfield defense, the Red Sox are set up to compete in 2016. But all the bright spots of this roster will go to waste if the Red Sox cannot find a reliable number 2 starter behind David Price. The Red Sox need Rick Porcello to be this guy. And he can be. He just has to be himself.
1: Ramirez' struggles at the plate after April appear to be caused by an injury. Ramirez was injured on May 4th against the Rays, banging his left shoulder hard against the unforgiving left field foul wall at Fenway Park. At the time of his injury, Ramirez had 10 home runs and a robust .949 OPS. After the injury, hit just 9 home runs and ended the season with a medicore .717 OPS.
Thursday, February 18, 2016
Isaiah Thomas: The Heart and Soul of the Boston Celtics
It's been three weeks and Boston Celtics point guard Isaiah Thomas still can't stop smiling.
On January 25th, I attended my first Celtics game of the season, with Boston holding a solid, if not spectacular, 24-21 record. In the age of the binary "contending-rebuilding" terms used to describe NBA teams, the Celtics have proven to be aberrant due to shrewd maneuvering from General Manager Danny Ainge.
Ainge has done a masterful job reshaping the Celtics over the past few seasons, starting with converting the fossils of future Hall of Famers Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett--along with fellow NBA artifact, Jason Terry--into three of Brooklyn's future first round picks in 20141, 2016, and 2018, a right to swap first rounders in 2017, and a $10.4 million trade exception.
After the trade was consummated on July 12, 2013, the Nets billionaire owner declared victory. "Today, the basketball gods smiled on the Nets," proclaimed a giddy Mikhail Prokhorov. "With the arrival of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, we have achieved a great balance on our roster between veteran stars and young talents. This team will be dazzling to watch, and tough to compete against."
The quote looks laughable years later, but it's important to remember that numerous analysts agreed with Prokhorov at the time, viewing the acquisition as a major coup by Nets GM Billy King. The Nets would be title contenders for years to come, with the Celtics languishing away at the bottom of the standings, trapped in an inextricable state of limbo.
Or so they thought.
Much to the glee of Celtics fans, the Nets have been an unmitigated disaster since the trade, precipitously atrophying into one of the association's worst teams. With a roster devoid of talent and management seemingly rife with incompetence, Brooklyn lacks a quick solution to pull its way out of NBA purgatory, all but ensuring the 2017 pick swap and 2018 first rounder Ainge procured from Brooklyn will yield tremendous value. As a result, Ainge now possesses three assets, including the 2016 pick that will fall high in the lottery, that have greatly appreciated in value, a heist that would cause even Bernie Madoff to genuflect in awe.
But that was just the start of Ainge's makeover of the Celtics roster.
Last season, with the Celtics off to an uninspiring 9-14 start, Ainge jettisoned Rajon Rondo, the last remnant of the 2007-2008 title team, to the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for a package including seldom-used small forward Jae Crowder. While not highly regarded at the time of the trade, Crowder has blossomed into a versatile (he plays small forward and power forward for Boston) and indispensable two-way player for the Celtics, pairing excellent defensive skills and intensity with a still-improving yet formidable offensive game.
As good as Crowder has been for Boston, however, this move would ultimately end up being only the Celtics' second best move of the 2014-2015 season.
Remember that trade exception I alluded to in the second paragraph? It was used to acquire Marcus Thornton and Tyler Zeller. On February 19, 2015, the then 20-31 Celtics acquired diminutive point guard Isaiah Thomas in exchange for Thornton's expiring contract and the Cleveland Cavaliers' 2016 first round pick. It was a small price to pay for a player with Thomas' prodigious scoring ability and favorable contract2, but he had developed an unfortunate reputation as a selfish, ball-dominant player during his tenures in Sacramento and Phoenix.
Since acquiring Thomas at the trade deadline, the moribund Celtics have quietly coalesced into one of the league's better teams with a record of 52-34 over the course of two seasons--good for the equivalent of 50 wins over an 82 game season. For perspective, last year's Eastern Conference champions, the Cleveland Cavaliers, won 53 games.
Buoyed by Thomas' scoring and playmaking prowess off the bench, the Celtics improved their offensive rating3by 1.9 points per 100 possessions over the final 31 games of the 2014-2015 season. More important than the raw statistic itself, the Celtics finally had a player that could create his own shot and proficiently operate the pick and roll--the foundation of most NBA offenses. The suddenly red-hot Celtics charged into the playoffs, but were swiftly dispatched in four games by LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Entering the 2015-2016 season, Thomas was not content resting on his laurels.
Asked by reporters in the preseason whether he was content as a 6th man, Thomas bristled back. "Hell no," Thomas declared. "Everyone wants to start. But I'm a team player, will do whatever is best for the team."
Fortunately for Thomas, he got his wish. And fortunately for the Celtics, he has thrived as a starter so far this year, averaging career-highs in points per game (21.5), rebounds per game (3.0), assists per game (6.6), free throw percentage (90%), assist-to-turnover ratio (2.44), and PER (21.30)4. Moreover, with Thomas playing even more of a featured role on offense this season, the Celtics have the 9th best offensive rating in the league.
Flash back to three weeks ago on January 25th, 2016. With the Washington Wizards hosting the Celtics in the aftermath of a Mid-Atlantic blizzard, the crowd was sparse, but enveloped by Celtics fans. Showcasing his dazzling array of crossovers, spin moves, jumpers, floaters, herky-jerky lay-ups, and his league-best hesitation dribbles, Thomas was a true maestro on the court, dropping 23 points and 9 assists en route to a 116-91 blowout victory over the struggling Wizards.
With the game well out of reach, Thomas sat on the bench for the entire fourth quarter. Actually, that's not an accurate depiction of what happened. Thomas wasn't in the game, but he certainly was not sitting.
For a vast majority of the quarter, with the Celtics bench continuing to roll, Celtics fans in the arena erupted with glee. "LET'S-GO-CEL-TICS," the crowd chanted.
Who directed the chants?
None other than Isaiah Thomas.
With a beaming smile on his face and his arms fluttering towards the rafters, Thomas continued to implore the fans to cheer on his teammates. This was the look of a man in pure bliss, totally satisfied with basking in the glow of the moment. I'm not a psychologist and I generally disapprove of sports writers who pretend to be, but it 's not hard to comprehend the reasons behind his unbridled joy.
In order to understand Isaiah Thomas, you must first understand what he has overcome in his NBA career. Ever since he bolted the University of Washington for the NBA Draft in 2011, he has relentlessly battled to debunk negative perceptions about him and his game.
At first, he was told he wouldn't be drafted. He was simply too short, too much of a shoot-first point guard, and way too much of a liability on defense against NBA point guards. He was poised to join the litany of underclassmen to declare early for the draft, only to be greeted by the cacophony of crickets and haughty "I told ya so(s)." When drafted with the final pick of the 2011 NBA Draft, he was told he wouldn't earn a spot on the Kings roster. After he proved he belonged, his detractors dismissed him as a 'ball hog' on a bad team. He moved on to Phoenix, where he became a basketball pariah, a misfit on an awkwardly-constructed roster. The Suns deemed him fungible, shipping him to Boston with the ink barely dry on the contract Thomas signed in the offseason. In Boston, he was told he couldn't lead the team to the playoffs, couldn't be the fulcrum of a robust NBA offense, and couldn't be a starter.
Thomas let his performance prove his critics foolish, winning his personal crusade against them by unanimous decision. All that was missing was a knockout blow.
On January 28, 2016, that changed. Isaiah Thomas was named an NBA All-Star. Punch delivered.
Instead of unleashing his fury against the critics, Thomas was magnanimous, acknowledging his detractors without attacking them.
"I asked myself, 'What can they say now?' But they'll find something," Thomas said. "I mean, if they talk bad about Kobe and those types of guys, I'm not close to as good as them, so they'll find something. But it's not about them right now. I'm just enjoying the moment and I'm excited about what happened [on All-Star selection] night."
To say Isaiah Thomas was excited during All-Star Weekend would be a gross understatement.
Grinning wide from ear to ear throughout the weekend, Thomas' ebullience and talents were on full display for the world to see.
Thomas placed second in the Skills Challenge on Saturday night before scoring 9 points and adding 3 rebounds and an assist for good measure during Sunday's game.
But don't mistake Thomas' happiness for satisfaction.
"Oh no, no," Thomas asserted. "We're trying to get more. Never satisfied, but definitely trying to get more."
No player better personifies this gritty, motley crew that is Brad Stevens' Boston Celtics more so than Isaiah Thomas, who has become the heart and soul of the team with the Eastern Conference's third best record.
And like Thomas, the Celtics aren't satisfied just yet. The fun is just getting started in Boston.
1: The Celtics selected guard James Young with the 2014 pick from Brooklyn. Although Young has yet to make an impact on the court for the Celtics in his nascent NBA career, he is only 20 years old and is capable of blossoming into a quality rotation player due to his ideal size (6'6") and purported ability to knock down three pointers.
2: Thomas signed a 4 year, $27 million deal with the Suns before the 2014-2015 season. Per terms of the deal, Thomas' salary decreases each year. Full information on Thomas' contract can be found here.
3: Offensive rating is computed as points per 100 possessions. It measures a team's offensive efficiency and is adjusted for pace.
4: PER measures a player's per-minute production. The average PER is 15. This statistic can be found on basketball-reference.com.
On January 25th, I attended my first Celtics game of the season, with Boston holding a solid, if not spectacular, 24-21 record. In the age of the binary "contending-rebuilding" terms used to describe NBA teams, the Celtics have proven to be aberrant due to shrewd maneuvering from General Manager Danny Ainge.
Ainge has done a masterful job reshaping the Celtics over the past few seasons, starting with converting the fossils of future Hall of Famers Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett--along with fellow NBA artifact, Jason Terry--into three of Brooklyn's future first round picks in 20141, 2016, and 2018, a right to swap first rounders in 2017, and a $10.4 million trade exception.
After the trade was consummated on July 12, 2013, the Nets billionaire owner declared victory. "Today, the basketball gods smiled on the Nets," proclaimed a giddy Mikhail Prokhorov. "With the arrival of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, we have achieved a great balance on our roster between veteran stars and young talents. This team will be dazzling to watch, and tough to compete against."
The quote looks laughable years later, but it's important to remember that numerous analysts agreed with Prokhorov at the time, viewing the acquisition as a major coup by Nets GM Billy King. The Nets would be title contenders for years to come, with the Celtics languishing away at the bottom of the standings, trapped in an inextricable state of limbo.
Or so they thought.
Much to the glee of Celtics fans, the Nets have been an unmitigated disaster since the trade, precipitously atrophying into one of the association's worst teams. With a roster devoid of talent and management seemingly rife with incompetence, Brooklyn lacks a quick solution to pull its way out of NBA purgatory, all but ensuring the 2017 pick swap and 2018 first rounder Ainge procured from Brooklyn will yield tremendous value. As a result, Ainge now possesses three assets, including the 2016 pick that will fall high in the lottery, that have greatly appreciated in value, a heist that would cause even Bernie Madoff to genuflect in awe.
But that was just the start of Ainge's makeover of the Celtics roster.
Last season, with the Celtics off to an uninspiring 9-14 start, Ainge jettisoned Rajon Rondo, the last remnant of the 2007-2008 title team, to the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for a package including seldom-used small forward Jae Crowder. While not highly regarded at the time of the trade, Crowder has blossomed into a versatile (he plays small forward and power forward for Boston) and indispensable two-way player for the Celtics, pairing excellent defensive skills and intensity with a still-improving yet formidable offensive game.
As good as Crowder has been for Boston, however, this move would ultimately end up being only the Celtics' second best move of the 2014-2015 season.
Remember that trade exception I alluded to in the second paragraph? It was used to acquire Marcus Thornton and Tyler Zeller. On February 19, 2015, the then 20-31 Celtics acquired diminutive point guard Isaiah Thomas in exchange for Thornton's expiring contract and the Cleveland Cavaliers' 2016 first round pick. It was a small price to pay for a player with Thomas' prodigious scoring ability and favorable contract2, but he had developed an unfortunate reputation as a selfish, ball-dominant player during his tenures in Sacramento and Phoenix.
Since acquiring Thomas at the trade deadline, the moribund Celtics have quietly coalesced into one of the league's better teams with a record of 52-34 over the course of two seasons--good for the equivalent of 50 wins over an 82 game season. For perspective, last year's Eastern Conference champions, the Cleveland Cavaliers, won 53 games.
Buoyed by Thomas' scoring and playmaking prowess off the bench, the Celtics improved their offensive rating3by 1.9 points per 100 possessions over the final 31 games of the 2014-2015 season. More important than the raw statistic itself, the Celtics finally had a player that could create his own shot and proficiently operate the pick and roll--the foundation of most NBA offenses. The suddenly red-hot Celtics charged into the playoffs, but were swiftly dispatched in four games by LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Entering the 2015-2016 season, Thomas was not content resting on his laurels.
Asked by reporters in the preseason whether he was content as a 6th man, Thomas bristled back. "Hell no," Thomas declared. "Everyone wants to start. But I'm a team player, will do whatever is best for the team."
Fortunately for Thomas, he got his wish. And fortunately for the Celtics, he has thrived as a starter so far this year, averaging career-highs in points per game (21.5), rebounds per game (3.0), assists per game (6.6), free throw percentage (90%), assist-to-turnover ratio (2.44), and PER (21.30)4. Moreover, with Thomas playing even more of a featured role on offense this season, the Celtics have the 9th best offensive rating in the league.
Flash back to three weeks ago on January 25th, 2016. With the Washington Wizards hosting the Celtics in the aftermath of a Mid-Atlantic blizzard, the crowd was sparse, but enveloped by Celtics fans. Showcasing his dazzling array of crossovers, spin moves, jumpers, floaters, herky-jerky lay-ups, and his league-best hesitation dribbles, Thomas was a true maestro on the court, dropping 23 points and 9 assists en route to a 116-91 blowout victory over the struggling Wizards.
With the game well out of reach, Thomas sat on the bench for the entire fourth quarter. Actually, that's not an accurate depiction of what happened. Thomas wasn't in the game, but he certainly was not sitting.
For a vast majority of the quarter, with the Celtics bench continuing to roll, Celtics fans in the arena erupted with glee. "LET'S-GO-CEL-TICS," the crowd chanted.
Who directed the chants?
None other than Isaiah Thomas.
With a beaming smile on his face and his arms fluttering towards the rafters, Thomas continued to implore the fans to cheer on his teammates. This was the look of a man in pure bliss, totally satisfied with basking in the glow of the moment. I'm not a psychologist and I generally disapprove of sports writers who pretend to be, but it 's not hard to comprehend the reasons behind his unbridled joy.
In order to understand Isaiah Thomas, you must first understand what he has overcome in his NBA career. Ever since he bolted the University of Washington for the NBA Draft in 2011, he has relentlessly battled to debunk negative perceptions about him and his game.
At first, he was told he wouldn't be drafted. He was simply too short, too much of a shoot-first point guard, and way too much of a liability on defense against NBA point guards. He was poised to join the litany of underclassmen to declare early for the draft, only to be greeted by the cacophony of crickets and haughty "I told ya so(s)." When drafted with the final pick of the 2011 NBA Draft, he was told he wouldn't earn a spot on the Kings roster. After he proved he belonged, his detractors dismissed him as a 'ball hog' on a bad team. He moved on to Phoenix, where he became a basketball pariah, a misfit on an awkwardly-constructed roster. The Suns deemed him fungible, shipping him to Boston with the ink barely dry on the contract Thomas signed in the offseason. In Boston, he was told he couldn't lead the team to the playoffs, couldn't be the fulcrum of a robust NBA offense, and couldn't be a starter.
Thomas let his performance prove his critics foolish, winning his personal crusade against them by unanimous decision. All that was missing was a knockout blow.
On January 28, 2016, that changed. Isaiah Thomas was named an NBA All-Star. Punch delivered.
Instead of unleashing his fury against the critics, Thomas was magnanimous, acknowledging his detractors without attacking them.
"I asked myself, 'What can they say now?' But they'll find something," Thomas said. "I mean, if they talk bad about Kobe and those types of guys, I'm not close to as good as them, so they'll find something. But it's not about them right now. I'm just enjoying the moment and I'm excited about what happened [on All-Star selection] night."
To say Isaiah Thomas was excited during All-Star Weekend would be a gross understatement.
Grinning wide from ear to ear throughout the weekend, Thomas' ebullience and talents were on full display for the world to see.
 |
| Isaiah Thomas smiles as he competes in the Skills Challenge. |
Thomas placed second in the Skills Challenge on Saturday night before scoring 9 points and adding 3 rebounds and an assist for good measure during Sunday's game.
But don't mistake Thomas' happiness for satisfaction.
"Oh no, no," Thomas asserted. "We're trying to get more. Never satisfied, but definitely trying to get more."
No player better personifies this gritty, motley crew that is Brad Stevens' Boston Celtics more so than Isaiah Thomas, who has become the heart and soul of the team with the Eastern Conference's third best record.
And like Thomas, the Celtics aren't satisfied just yet. The fun is just getting started in Boston.
1: The Celtics selected guard James Young with the 2014 pick from Brooklyn. Although Young has yet to make an impact on the court for the Celtics in his nascent NBA career, he is only 20 years old and is capable of blossoming into a quality rotation player due to his ideal size (6'6") and purported ability to knock down three pointers.
2: Thomas signed a 4 year, $27 million deal with the Suns before the 2014-2015 season. Per terms of the deal, Thomas' salary decreases each year. Full information on Thomas' contract can be found here.
3: Offensive rating is computed as points per 100 possessions. It measures a team's offensive efficiency and is adjusted for pace.
4: PER measures a player's per-minute production. The average PER is 15. This statistic can be found on basketball-reference.com.
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